Decision Matrix

I am committed to rebuilding and improving my current kits and supplies. In the past I have just gathered up all the things everyone believes should be in a kit and stuffed it all in various transport bags. In the end, I have a bunch of bags with lots of gear and will probably never have what I need with me when I actually need it. Time to rethink this whole process.

Back to my strategic planning background -- plan with the end in mind. OK, I can plan for the most likely scenarios. Can it be simpler?

In looking at all the possible disaster scenarios, I realized there really are a finite number of options. The real question is "Will you receive warning that a disaster is coming?" In Southern California, earthquakes are always unannounced. OK, we always know there is another one coming so we need to be prepared, but we don't get to watch them form on the weather radar with estimates of when we are going to get hit. I am keeping earthquakes in the No Warning category. Chemical spills, terrorist attacks, accidents, perhaps wind damage and home fires could be added to the No Warning list. Most other disasters we have some notice of.

The difference in Awareness/Warning is the difference in Evacuating versus Escaping. Evacuation allows more time, more orderliness, more thought. Escape just has to happen NOW! Grab what you can as you are running out the door.

Of course, you always have the option of Choose to be A Victim. That decision is usually made up front with a complete lack of planning and preparation -- but even the prepared may choose this route in the end.

In many cases, Shelter in Place is a preferred option. Note, if you are looking at a Localized Disaster, Shelter In Place may be with friends or family at their home.

I will be discussing these options in future posts. For now I wanted to get the concept of a Disaster Planning Matrix out there so we can begin building a structure to evaluate our own preparedness -- and it is posted in time to influence New Year's Resolutions!

Active Shooters

Yes, there have been too many shootings lately. Oh, let's not forget there was also a mass knifing and another person bludgeoned to death with a hammer on the same day as the school shooting that is getting all of the press.

While each and every one of these incidents are sad, we must be careful not to rush to blame the tools (guns) being used. Note the three examples I listed used three different "tools." What is universal is that there is something fundamentally wrong in the minds of the killers. Perhaps it is manufactured diseases, too much chemical treatment of illness, violent video games, or just poor upbringing. Perhaps this is how God plans to destroy the planet on December 21? Regardless of the conspiracy you choose to embrace, we will all need to remain vigilant.

Today I am sharing two videos that were emailed to me over the past 24 hours. The first was made in Houston for businesses to plan for an Active Shooter scenario. It is actually well done for the average individual.

Note near the beginning of the video you see part of the notice on the door that (in spite of Texas being concealed carry friendly) states this is a "no weapons" building. I will restrict my politicized comments on that to two thoughts:
(1) Nice to designate this building as a safe zone for bad guys, and
(2) Totally naive to believe any criminal is going to NOT carry weapons in because of that stupid sign.

Here is the link to this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VcSwejU2D0

Thank you to the folks at www.mysurvival101.com for sending this video out.

The next video is a bit different -- not as professional but still has good messages. Cindy and Jeff at SoulSurvivorX2 are a real couple in Florida who have been sharing their experience as they learn more about prepping a survival. Like most of us, they have learned from some mistakes and came back with new videos to show why earlier decisions may not have been the best. I enjoy the odd reality of this couple.

In this video, Cindy shares some basic awareness tips for anyone moving about in public. You can never be too safe in today's world...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOI_xtDS2lk

Systems Thinking

Today I attended the grand opening of a prepping/survival store and enjoyed a couple hours of conversation with complete strangers who share my passions. I am not claiming to be a genius – but I can admit to making mistakes and try to guide people so they don’t have to repeat my mistakes (there are always additional mistakes they can explore and call their own!).

The biggest mistake I see being made by people getting into prepping is that they are not thinking of systems that can share modules. It really hit today when a neat couple was discussing how they had picked up a bunch of ammo cans because they needed to transport 6 different calibers of ammo for their guns. What?

OK, I am not condemning this man because I have been there myself. You see gun A and decide to get it for whatever reason. Then a friend tells you to get gun B and you add that to your collection. An “expert” on You Tube says gun C is the best so you add that to your arsenal. Nothing matches and you have potential chaos.

Let’s also acknowledge that everyone believes the guns and gear they have is the best (please don’t ask us to admit we may not have made the best possible decision!). I don’t care what brand of gear you get – but I do suggest you think as a system. For instance, a full-size Glock handgun in .40 caliber can share ammo and magazines with a target version, compact version, and subcompact version. Add a KelTec Sub 2000 to the mix and you have a folding carbine that can use the same ammo and magazines. Now you have multiple firearms that share the same supplies. Life just got simpler!

For another example, let’s look at shotguns. My first shotgun was a Winchester 1300 set up for home defense. I found it at a good price and bought it. However, that is not a great hunting shotgun. I looked at the Remington 870 combo offer with switchable barrels which allows one shotgun to be optimized for hunting purposes and then reconfigured in about a minute for home defense. Cool concept. However, I also discovered the Winchester 1200 shares a lot of key components with my existing 1300. By getting a specific purpose hunting shotgun with interchangeable parts with my home defense shotgun, I am able to harvest parts from one to resolve many potential problems with another. If I were starting fresh today, I would probably buy 2 of the Remingtons so I would have the versatility and the spare parts. Either way, think system.

I gave two examples of systems thinking with firearms because that is the topic that got me started today. But you should apply systems thinking to all of your planning.

Over the past year I bought my first lightweight water filter – picked a unit from MSR because one of my sons has that unit and the parts would be interchangeable if one broke – systems thinking within the family structure. Beyond that issue, the MSR filter screws directly onto the top of my Guyout bottle for easy use. It also fits the Platypus that I carry on my motorcycle. It also fits the Outdoor Research bladder in my back pack water reservoir. Know what it doesn’t fit? My old Camelback! That bladder was about due for replacement anyway. Another MSR bladder will fit that carrier just fine. So all of my primary water transport containers are 100% compatible with the threads on my MSR water filter. Systems Thinking! It really is that simple.

Much like my discussion a few weeks back on selecting a power source where I will hardly purchase any item that does not use AA  batteries, I do not intend to acquire any additional water carrying options that do not share the same thread pattern as the water filter. I won’t be buying another Camelback!

Sometimes system thinking is easy and flexible – think of all the PALS/Molle gear that is now available. Everything can fit together in some manner and be updated as your needs change. I like the modularity.

Let’s not limit our systems thinking to prepping though. Many years ago I did a great deal of research and selected what I truly believed was the best all around cell phone for my business purposes. It worked great for all of my needs. However, since it was a niche phone, few accessories were available. I reflect on that experience when looking at new technology today. Sometimes the absolute best piece of gear may not be the one you should buy if the accessories you want will not be available.

Systems thinking. Use it everyday – especially in your prepping purchases! You will save lots of money AND chaos by applying a little thought up front.