The Folly of the Bug Out Bag

I talk to lots of people about prepping and survival. Almost always they mention having or planning to put together a bug out bag. I have a bug out bag. In fact, I have created multiple bug out bags – one for each family member. They include shelter and sleeping gear, food, cooking gear, water purification, a variety of tools, navigation, first aid, hygiene supplies, etc. Everything is either in a back pack or a luggable duffel bag. Assume society as you know it just ended where you are living and you need to escape another area to live. Your bug out bag would be a valued companion.

Here is how extreme my approach was after spending years constructing the ultimate bug out bag approach – one that is fully scalable. I begin by loading 15 MREs and two large parachute bags of gear into my motorcycle trailer along with shotguns, rifles and ammo. Then a full size military duffel bag (traditional stand-alone bug out bag) gets strapped on top. The idea being that if I reach a point where I must abandon the cycle and trailer, I will toss the duffel over the shoulder and grab a long gun to hoof it out of the area. If I can’t go further with the full duffel, the small day pack I carry with my water bladder is packed for a couple nights in the wilderness. Of course, I would have a handgun and stout blade stashed under my cycle jacket.

WAIT. WE ARE ALL CRAZY! And perhaps I am king of the loonies.

Inherent in the concept of having a bug out bag is actually having some place to bug out to – or at least a means to get somewhere you can call home in the future. That really is not going to happen in the area I live in.

Let’s back up a minute. I live in Orange County, just southeast of Los Angeles. The number one thing people prepare for here is earthquakes. Now I have seen many earthquakes since moving here – several with some real damage in a relatively small area. If you lived in that immediate area, you may need to seek shelter for a few days or, in the worst case, actually find a new place to live after yours has been condemned. These people go to a local hotel, shelter or family home for their immediate housing needs. Exactly the same behavior is seen with wild fires, mud slides, etc. In these scenarios you need an escape plan with basic supplies to get to your next destination – which is seldom a real bug out type location. You normally will be more focused on pulling insurance and other important documents versus actual living supplies.

OK, we hear a lot of talk about “The Big One!” That would be the mother of all earthquakes which would begin under the Salton Sea and follow the San Andreas Fault northwest to the Pacific Ocean. Models for this earthquake show that all major routes to the north and east of the greater Los Angeles area will be completely cut off by the fault. Those of us who may be far enough west of the fault, in an area where the rippling destruction has not completely fanned out, will be severely shaken amid buildings which may be crumbling, but perhaps not buried. The only way out of this region is to head south and follow Rt. 8 along the border of Mexico. That is 80 miles from my home (I drove it Monday night).  FYI, I drove a long section of this route in June and there is NOTHING for hundreds of miles but open, arid desert.

If you have not personally experienced the daily nightmare of traffic in the greater LA region, you have certainly seen it depicted on TV and in movies. Believe me, it is worse to sit in than it ever looks on the TV! Now picture millions of survivors from the region all trying to get south to Rt. 8 with the thought of escaping to the east. It just is not going to happen! Most people don’t even keep enough gas in their car to get that far. They will try though, resulting in thousands of abandoned cars blocking the already over filled roadways.

No, a bug out bag is not going to help you in this situation. If you find yourself still alive, your best bet is probably to shelter right where you are – which means your shelter-in-place supplies are more critical than a bug out bag.

How about economic collapse? Still, a bug out bag is probably not the right answer. Anyone concerned about potential economic collapse (that should be everyone!) really must read “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” by Fernando FerFAL Aguirre. FerFAL will lead you through the reality of a modern collapse and what life after the collapse really is – based on his personal experience in Argentina in the past decade. This is a very broad topic, but a bug out bag really doesn’t have a role in it.

The only scenario I can conceive that would merit a real bug out bag in Southern California would be a Red Dawn type invasion. Even then, would we actually be able to get out of the area or are we better off finding hidden shelter in defensible locations within the local area? For instance, my prior home had huge drainage pipes in place in case of flooding which never happened. After a few years the large vertical inlets were hidden by brush and debris. I still knew where they were and made a point of confirming accessibility to them when hiking alone nearby – just in case a quick hideout was needed (OK, I am that crazy).

Perhaps the area you live in is different. Yet, stop and think through any scenario that you are planning for and ask “Is a bug out bag what I really need?” In most cases I believe you will concur that an Immediate Needs Kit, Get Home Bag, basic Emergency Response Kit, and a good Shelter In Place plan are what you really need. We will discuss all of these in future posts.

In the meantime, continue to Prepare/Protect/Persevere!